SpaceX just IPO’d yesterday at a $1.77 trillion valuation, the largest IPO in history. OpenAI and Anthropic are reportedly next as they confidentially filed their S-1s. And your feed is probably full of people posting crazy gains recently.
This is a great time to talk about why none of that should change what you do on Monday morning.
Social media only shows the highlight reel
It’s often that I see someone shares a screenshot of their brokerage account and it’s up like +412% in 11 months. The comments then say “what stock?!” or “teach me!”
In reality, here’s what you typically don’t see:
- 8 other positions down 60%
- they put in $300, so the “412% gain” is $1,200
- they panic sold last year all their other positions
Social media is the highlight reel of investing. You only see the wins, and your brain starts saying “everyone is making money except me”
When your colleagues, your friends, and your barber are all talking about a new IPO, it feels almost irrational not to buy. But you have to stick to the plan.
The problem
Companies go public when valuations are high and buyers are excited. That’s great for the founders and early investors cashing out. It is historically not great for the retail investor who buys on day one.
SpaceX is a perfect example. It was priced at $135 and jumped 19% on Friday… It might go to $300. It might go to $50. Nobody knows.
This is similar to Zoom hype in 2025. The stock went from $60 to $500 in a single year, and everyone was buying it. Then it dropped 42% over the next five years while the S&P 500 returned 100%+.
The most important point:
If you invest in broad index ETFs, like $VTI (Total US Stock Market), $VOO (S&P 500) or $VT, you are already exposed to the companies generating the most excitement right now. When SpaceX gets added to major indexes, which it may, your index fund buys it automatically.
You don’t need to pick winners because you own the whole market.
If you invest in $VOO (the S&P 500), 7.85% of the fund is already in Nvidia. The same will eventually be true for SpaceX, OpenAI, and whatever comes after them.
What to actually do right now
From February to March of 2020, the S&P 500 dropped 34%. 42% of investors sold. Nearly all of them regret it, because from that bottom to today, the market increased significatly.
The people who came out ahead weren’t the ones who timed the IPOs. They were the ones who did nothing.
Some reminders:
Check your allocation. If you’re young, 100% equities may makes sense. If volatility keeps you up at night, dial it back. The right allocation is the one you can hold through a 30% drop without panic selling.
Keep costs low. A mutual fund charging 1% in fees needs to outperform by ~1% every single year just to break even with a 0.03% index fund. Over the long run, the S&P 500 has returned ~10% annually. Don’t give that away in fees.
Automate and forget. Set up automatic investing, and do nothing. Boredom is a strategy.
Don’t try to time anything. Not the IPO. Not the “obvious” top. The math of long term index investing works whether or not you bought SpaceX at $135.
Your job is simple: tune it out, stay diversified, keep costs low, and let time do the work.
See you next Saturday.
MC, CPA